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White paper · MKM-R-2025-006

Measuring transformation: a verification standard

Most transformation value is declared, not delivered. Verification is the difference.

The audit standard Markham applies before an outcome is allowed to be called delivered.

Length16 pages
Samplen = 312 outcomes
Period2022–2025
AuthorsMarkham Institute
ReferenceMKM-R-2025-006
Version1.0 · Current
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The summary20-minute summary

Most transformation value is declared, not delivered. Verification is the difference.

When we audited 312 outcomes that programmes had reported as delivered, 44% failed at least one of three tests: the baseline had moved, the benefit was double-counted, or the result did not survive twelve months. The industry’s delivery statistics are built on declarations. This paper publishes the standard we apply instead. It sets out the tests an outcome must pass before anyone at Markham may call it delivered, in an engagement or in a dataset.

The standard is deliberately simple: a frozen month-0 baseline, a single attribution line per benefit, an independent reader of the evidence, and a twelve-month survival check. It is published in full so that clients, and competitors, can apply it without us. Every figure in the annual cohort study passes it; that is what the numbers in our research mean when they are cited. A failed test tells us a claim was not evidenced. It does not always tell us the benefit was absent, and that distinction matters a great deal to the programme team that finds itself on the wrong side of it after a year of real work.

Key findings
44%

Share of outcomes reported as delivered that failed verification, through moved baselines, double counting, or non-survival at month 12.

3

Tests in the core standard: frozen baseline, single attribution, twelve-month survival. Three is as many as a busy finance team will actually run.

19%

Median overstatement of programme value in self-reported delivery figures, against verified figures for the same programmes.

100%

Share of figures in the annual cohort study that pass the standard. Declarations do not enter the dataset.

Inside the report4 chapters · 16 pages
01
The declaration problemWhat 312 audited outcomes reveal about self-reported delivery.
4 pages · 5 min
02
The three testsHow the frozen baseline, single attribution and twelve-month survival tests are each defined operationally.
4 pages · 5 min
03
Running a verificationThe audit trail, the independent reader, and what happens when an outcome fails.
4 pages · 5 min
04
The standard in fullThe published tests, templates and pass criteria, reproducible without licence.
4 pages · 5 min
If you only act on four things

The findings, as Monday-morning decisions.

a

Freeze the baseline before the programme starts and put it under change control. A moved baseline is the most common way value is invented. Expect the first request to move it inside the first quarter, expect the request to sound entirely reasonable, and expect to have to refuse it in writing to somebody who outranks you.

b

Give every claimed benefit exactly one attribution line. If two initiatives claim the same saving, one of them is wrong.

c

Have the evidence read by someone who does not benefit from the answer.

d

Re-test at month 12. An outcome that did not survive a year was a project artefact, not a delivered result.

Methodology & governance
Sample312 reported outcomes across 61 programmes, 2022–2025, re-audited against original baselines and evidence trails.
StandardThe published standard is maintained as MKM-F-003 and revised annually. This paper documents v2.0.
IndependenceVerification is performed by staff outside the delivering engagement team, with findings reported to the client directly. Separating two teams inside one firm is an imperfect arrangement, and we will not pretend otherwise. The evidence trail behind any verified figure is open to a client who wants to check the reader as well as the result.
PublicationTests, templates and pass criteria are published in full and may be applied without licence.
Citation

Markham Institute, Measuring transformation: a verification standard, MKM-R-2025-006, v1.0 (September 2025). Citation permitted with attribution.

Revision history
v1.0 · Sep 2025First publication, documenting v2.0 of the standard.